Hextech Crafting. Not Worth $ in Current System?

So, as a player who recently got messages from Riot saying "you get 108% more honour than the average player" or something, I have collected a lot of keys. But since the changes to IP/essence, it doesn't seem worth it. Like, I could spend $10 on 8 chests to unlock (or more for the stack of 18 keys, not fragments, sitting in my loot), but how many will have skin shards, and how many shards need to be disenchanted to craft one? It is currently cheaper to go into the store and buy a skin of your choice, than to craft a random one (that may be worth very little in terms of RP). How does this make sense to anyone? I'd like some clarification on how this whole hextech crafting thing isn't just one of those "freemium" scams now. Tencent gets no cents from me.
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